A reminder that last year I stopped doing game-by-game predictions. Good thing, because I would have made a bigger ass out of myself than I normally do!
I predicted 20-9, 14-4 last year. We ended the regular season 14-15, 12-6. I don't recall who the most pessimistic poster out here was a year ago, but I'm pretty sure no one projected 14 wins in the regular season! Thankfully we went 3-0 when it counted, and a solid 0-1 beyond that to finish 17-16.
I know many of you don't like to make picks until you've seen the open scrimmage (why, I have no idea, as that really tells us little). I won't be at the scrimmage, but I'm fine with making my predictions now anyway.
We have just seven OOC games on the docket, barring some crazy last-minute add, which we're not expecting: at LaSalle, home vs Ohio, Stetson and Kennesaw St in Florida, at UConn, Princeton in Brooklyn, and at Colorado. Honestly speaking, we should win the Ohio game and the two games in Florida without question. And honestly speaking, Colorado is going to be very good, and I'd be surprised if we won that game. With that in mind, the other 3 games--LaSalle, UConn and Princeton--are all winnable, but also all losable. So I'll go with cautious optimism and say we win 2 of the 3 and go 5-2 OOC.
The MAAC has to improve from the disaster it was a year ago, but it seems a lot of the league's talent may be on the younger side, so the improvement won't be immediate. I think a return to the low 20s in conference rank would be a nice step and is within reason. Mediocrity is the law. I honestly don't think any team will be terrible (say, 300+ rating), but I also don't think anyone will be great (say, 100 or better rating). I think the league will bunch a lot of teams between 175 and 225, with the best of the lot (Iona and Rider) in the top 150. So, I think Iona will be better than everyone else, but not the legendary bunch that a couple of you have hinted at. I'll go with 15 wins in league play.
So, I'm going with 15-5 in the MAAC and 20-7 overall. We should be the 1 seed again. I think most of us forgot that we probably should have lost to St Peter's, if the free throw is made. So it's just so hard to say we'll just win the tourney again, as every tourney is different and now we won't be at "Tim's Union Center" either. So, gun to head, yeah, I'd say we'll complete the #DriveFor5. But to "expect" it as I think so many of you do now is probably not fair. Number crunchers might tell you we're "due to lose", but the bottom line is that there is an aura around the program that has seen it through for 4 straight years.
The one thing I can say is that, if last year taught us anything, it's to believe. I "bumped" that thread from very early February 2019 before we started the winning streak and we were all cooked. Granted, 7-15 will do that for you. But most of us had them dead and buried, and those who didn't were just playing the role of eternal optimist and cannot honestly say they saw that turnaround coming.
I know some of you are expecting us to buzzsaw the MAAC and the majority of this unimpressive OOC slate, with or without Jelly. I won't disagree that there is potential for it. The core players are all back sans McGill, so the defense should be quite a bit better from what we saw from Nov to Jan last year. With the core back, there will be little in the way of jostling around in terms of leadership and other roles; really only the pecking order of the supporting cast needs to be sorted. If a handful of ifs fall into place, that buzzsaw could happen. But...we saw what happened last year, when EVERY if goes to the shitter. Earlier I talked about number crunching and what's "due" to happen; well, based on last year I certainly don't expect every if we have to go kaput again. But we'll also save the delusion of every if falling into place for our friends up in Loudonville--thus, my solid but not overly dominant predictions.
Oct 21, 2018 at 10:24pm thehat said: 5-6 OOC, 11-7 in conference. MAAC tourney is a roll of the dice, but TC has magic that time of year, we have as good a shot as anybody.
16-13?? This is one of if not the the most talented teamTC has had at Iona!! 22-7 is very feasible and if healthy we could do better,it's not just me being optimistic,the staff is high on the potential here as well.Again we are 3x champs,until we get beat we are the team!!!
That was LAST year, mine was the upper posting, I was the closest.
I’ll wait for tomorrow, despite guys opinion, I feel like I learn about the team when I see them in person. Last year I learned Perez would probably start and My post a week later said I would have predicted 19-10 if griffin played and 16-13 without him based on what I saw, so hat you weren’t alone. So we will see. Based on schedule, 27-3 is needed for an at large, sadly and ridiculously 26-4 I don’t think will get one, and I don’t think anything I see tomorrow will convince me that all that matters is 3 days in March.
Last Edit: Oct 18, 2019 19:23:57 GMT -5 by Joebird
Oct 21, 2018 at 10:24pm thehat said: 5-6 OOC, 11-7 in conference. MAAC tourney is a roll of the dice, but TC has magic that time of year, we have as good a shot as anybody.
16-13?? This is one of if not the the most talented teamTC has had at Iona!! 22-7 is very feasible and if healthy we could do better,it's not just me being optimistic,the staff is high on the potential here as well.Again we are 3x champs,until we get beat we are the team!!!
That was LAST year, mine was the upper posting, I was the closest.
Like being the tallest midget!
The greatest poster in the history of the MAAC as determined by THREE separate polls.
I’ll wait for tomorrow, despite guys opinion, I feel like I learn about the team when I see them in person. Last year I learned Perez would probably start and My post a week later said I would have predicted 19-10 if griffin played and 16-13 without him based on what I saw, so hat you weren’t alone. So we will see. Based on schedule, 27-3 is needed for an at large, sadly and ridiculously 26-4 I don’t think will get one, and I don’t think anything I see tomorrow will convince me that all that matters is 3 days in March.
IW will add depth and flexibility. Playmaking ability which will open up shots against our tougher scheduled OOC teams. One of the biggest issues we had last year in my viewpoint was the fact that we relied too much on the outside shot at times. IW is a NYC street baller who takes pride in his dribbling ability and ability to get to the hoop and finish. A key component that will help an offense that focuses on the 3pt shot. Being able to drive and have defenses collapse will open up tons of 3pt shots.
In addition with A.J. McNeil who also takes pride in getting to the hoop with his playmaking ability and athleticism, they will both be a problem. But having both instead of just one will be a substantial factor. Having both of them will allow Gist to alternate bringing the ball up or playing off the ball. Also, it will allow Thiam and Agee tons of putback opportunities and to play in the post as well. Areas where we struggled last year included getting to the foul line. This year I don't think that will be a problem.
The thing I like about our team this year is the playmaking ability, size, and depth. In the past, we had big guys that just filled the roster spot because of their size. However, this year we have size and versatility from those positions. Thiam/Agee/Van Eyck all provide different games at 6'9". Van Eyck can spread the defense with his shot and seems to have a decent handle at his size; Agee, well you know his game; and Thiam, from what I can tell and the footage online seems to have a long reach and athletic. Nikolic is a bruiser down low and plays smart. Lastly, you have Ristanovic who can shoot outside and has length.
When you go to guards, you have IW, McNeil, Cashaw, Ross, Perez, Gist, and Crawford. Now before I say anything about those players, I feel very confident in any of those players in the starting lineup. IW and McNeil I think mirror each other's game. They both drive and have really good mid-range games. Cashaw from his videos runs an offense, shoots well, and takes care of the ball. Ross is the guy that I think will surprise this year as his numbers from his prior school show his ability to shoot. This is an area which we needed to improve from last year. Perez and Gist we already know about as they both will contribute. Crawford is the glue guy of the whole team this year and I feel that he will once again elevate his game to the next level like he did for us last year when we needed it.
I think we will have growing pains through the year, but we have tons of talent on this team which will overcome any struggles. Teams like Connecticut, Colorado, Princeton, and Ohio all have size. In the past, we had the guard play to match them, but always had trouble on the boards and defending down low. This year, I think we're in a much better position to compete and stay in games. The MAAC aka in conference is always challenging, but I think we take the next step to solidifying our mid major status.
Game-by-Game Analysis:
At La Salle - W (Coming off a 10-21 season with similar size to ours. Playing at La Salle, but should win). 1-0 Ohio - W (Coming off a 14-17 season with half the roster being freshman while playing at home.) 2-0 Stetson - W (Away in Disney, picked one of the last in their conference) 3-0 Kennesaw State - W (Away in Disney, picked one of the last in their conference/Tons of Freshman) 4-0 At Connecticut - L (Tough arena to win in with a good coach. Key is if IW is eligible as it will help, but I think this will be a L. 4-1 Princeton - W (Depends on if we come out slow after a long break. Winnable game and i think we win) 5-1 Colorado - L (Picked 2nd in Pac-12/Have size and talent. Will be a tough game in their arena) 5-2 Saint Peters - W (Quick turnaround, but should win at home) 6-2 At Monmouth - L (Always tough games here. Might let this one slip) 6-3 At Rider - L (Let this one slip through our hands at rider) 6-4 Niagara - W (Correcting the ship. Home court advantage game with a day of rest) 7-4 Fairfield - W (Home game and rolling) 8-4 At Marist - W (On a roll) 9-4 Canisius - W (Home game and why I say we won't lose) 10-4 Monmouth - W (Revenge for earlier season lose) 11-4 Siena - W (Still can't beat TC, but siena plays in shock from the improvements to the new arena) 12-4 At Manhattan - W (Improved team but still don't have the athleticism to play with us) 13-4 At Quinnipiac - L (Sneaky team with good talent. They shock us at their home arena) 13-5 At Fairfield - W (Bounce back game) 14-5 Manhattan - W (Home game and team is starting to gel) 15-5 Marist - W (Win) 16-5 Siena - W (TC owns them and IW/McNeil/Gist/Ross own Pickett and he will cry to the refs) 17-5 Rider - W (Revenge for earlier game in the year while at home. Quick turnaround from Albany = Sloppy) 18-5 Canisius - L (Upstate NY trip slip up. Happens once in a while) 18-6 Niagara - W (Bounce back game) 19-6 Quinnipiac - W (Revenge game. Playing home with some rest) 20-6 Saint Peters - W (End the season on a strong note going into MAAC Championship) 21-6
If we win the MAAC (Which I believe we will), I think we will most likely be a 14/15 seed. That could change if we beat Colorado or Connecticut and if we beat both of them, we could get a 13. However, playing it safe based upon our OOC, I don't think an at-large bid is on the table.
IW will add depth and flexibility. Playmaking ability which will open up shots against our tougher scheduled OOC teams. One of the biggest issues we had last year in my viewpoint was the fact that we relied too much on the outside shot at times. IW is a NYC street baller who takes pride in his dribbling ability and ability to get to the hoop and finish. A key component that will help an offense that focuses on the 3pt shot. Being able to drive and have defenses collapse will open up tons of 3pt shots.
In addition with A.J. McNeil who also takes pride in getting to the hoop with his playmaking ability and athleticism, they will both be a problem. But having both instead of just one will be a substantial factor. Having both of them will allow Gist to alternate bringing the ball up or playing off the ball. Also, it will allow Thiam and Agee tons of putback opportunities and to play in the post as well. Areas where we struggled last year included getting to the foul line. This year I don't think that will be a problem.
The thing I like about our team this year is the playmaking ability, size, and depth. In the past, we had big guys that just filled the roster spot because of their size. However, this year we have size and versatility from those positions. Thiam/Agee/Van Eyck all provide different games at 6'9". Van Eyck can spread the defense with his shot and seems to have a decent handle at his size; Agee, well you know his game; and Thiam, from what I can tell and the footage online seems to have a long reach and athletic. Nikolic is a bruiser down low and plays smart. Lastly, you have Ristanovic who can shoot outside and has length.
When you go to guards, you have IW, McNeil, Cashaw, Ross, Perez, Gist, and Crawford. Now before I say anything about those players, I feel very confident in any of those players in the starting lineup. IW and McNeil I think mirror each other's game. They both drive and have really good mid-range games. Cashaw from his videos runs an offense, shoots well, and takes care of the ball. Ross is the guy that I think will surprise this year as his numbers from his prior school show his ability to shoot. This is an area which we needed to improve from last year. Perez and Gist we already know about as they both will contribute. Crawford is the glue guy of the whole team this year and I feel that he will once again elevate his game to the next level like he did for us last year when we needed it.
I think we will have growing pains through the year, but we have tons of talent on this team which will overcome any struggles. Teams like Connecticut, Colorado, Princeton, and Ohio all have size. In the past, we had the guard play to match them, but always had trouble on the boards and defending down low. This year, I think we're in a much better position to compete and stay in games. The MAAC aka in conference is always challenging, but I think we take the next step to solidifying our mid major status.
Game-by-Game Analysis:
At La Salle - W (Coming off a 10-21 season with similar size to ours. Playing at La Salle, but should win). 1-0 Ohio - W (Coming off a 14-17 season with half the roster being freshman while playing at home.) 2-0 Stetson - W (Away in Disney, picked one of the last in their conference) 3-0 Kennesaw State - W (Away in Disney, picked one of the last in their conference/Tons of Freshman) 4-0 At Connecticut - L (Tough arena to win in with a good coach. Key is if IW is eligible as it will help, but I think this will be a L. 4-1 Princeton - W (Depends on if we come out slow after a long break. Winnable game and i think we win) 5-1 Colorado - L (Picked 2nd in Pac-12/Have size and talent. Will be a tough game in their arena) 5-2 Saint Peters - W (Quick turnaround, but should win at home) 6-2 At Monmouth - L (Always tough games here. Might let this one slip) 6-3 At Rider - L (Let this one slip through our hands at rider) 6-4 Niagara - W (Correcting the ship. Home court advantage game with a day of rest) 7-4 Fairfield - W (Home game and rolling) 8-4 At Marist - W (On a roll) 9-4 Canisius - W (Home game and why I say we won't lose) 10-4 Monmouth - W (Revenge for earlier season lose) 11-4 Siena - W (Still can't beat TC, but siena plays in shock from the improvements to the new arena) 12-4 At Manhattan - W (Improved team but still don't have the athleticism to play with us) 13-4 At Quinnipiac - L (Sneaky team with good talent. They shock us at their home arena) 13-5 At Fairfield - W (Bounce back game) 14-5 Manhattan - W (Home game and team is starting to gel) 15-5 Marist - W (Win) 16-5 Siena - W (TC owns them and IW/McNeil/Gist/Ross own Pickett and he will cry to the refs) 17-5 Rider - W (Revenge for earlier game in the year while at home. Quick turnaround from Albany = Sloppy) 18-5 Canisius - L (Upstate NY trip slip up. Happens once in a while) 18-6 Niagara - W (Bounce back game) 19-6 Quinnipiac - W (Revenge game. Playing home with some rest) 20-6 Saint Peters - W (End the season on a strong note going into MAAC Championship) 21-6
If we win the MAAC (Which I believe we will), I think we will most likely be a 14/15 seed. That could change if we beat Colorado or Connecticut and if we beat both of them, we could get a 13. However, playing it safe based upon our OOC, I don't think an at-large bid is on the table.
Okay, RANT OVER.
Nice write up. Maybe this is the year they exceed regular season expectations. If they do I dont seem them any better than what you have them doing. Pretty much best case scenario or close to it. Iona regular season is just too unpredictable unfortunately. New faces take time to jell and even with 4 of 5 starters returning, I still think it's most likely a sub par OOC. I just hope that they figure it out a lot faster than last year. By March last year Iona was playing unbelievable basketball (sans last few mins of SPU game.. but that kid did drill 3 straight 3s so good fortune goes both ways). 3 weeks until we get to watch it unfold.
Iona returns 4 starters from a team that won both the regular season and MAAC tourney. Played #1 seed UNC tough. If Iona doesn't have a solid OOC record, when will they? With this poor OOC schedule I am looking for a 5-2 record.