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Post by GuyF on Jan 10, 2012 9:34:39 GMT -5
I of course agree re winning in Springfield. However, that RPI still would have a GREAT influence on our seed.
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Post by nick on Jan 10, 2012 9:36:38 GMT -5
On an RPI side note one of things helping our RPI is Western Michigan has turned from a horrible RPi to low 100's and a decent win. Hopefully they can keep this up. Maryland can help us out alot as they get into their league schedule if they continue to play well.
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Post by ghostofwillard on Jan 10, 2012 9:40:05 GMT -5
As everyone knows I disagree and think Gaels have a chance with up to 2 losses. However your right they should be shooting to win 3 in Springfield, and even if iona did lose and got an at large it would probably be one of those play in games, so winning the Maac championship is a very good thing even if Iona is 18-0. On an RPI side note one of things helping our RPI is Western Michigan has turned from a horrible RPi to low 100's and a decent win. Hopefully they can keep this up. My trouble with your theory is we have no good losses remaining on our schedule, and the team that can do the most damage to Iona is Rider. They got off to a horrific start, but Gadson is back healthy and they are capable of defeating Iona, lose that game alone and the at-large discussions have to end.
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Post by Joebird on Jan 10, 2012 10:26:59 GMT -5
Your right Rider would look like a bad loss even though it wouldn't be nearly as bad as it looks. I don't think at Manhattan, at Fairfield or at Loyola is a true bad loss. One thing for sure is the RPI predictor shows that we can afford a couple of losses and not plummet in RPI, but your right the committee may view these as bad losses, which wouldn't be good for the resume.
Where I think you and me disagree is I do think we are definitely in with just one loss and a Maac tourney loss but being in may be the play in game.
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Post by GuyF on Jan 10, 2012 11:41:57 GMT -5
As everyone knows I disagree and think Gaels have a chance with up to 2 losses. However your right they should be shooting to win 3 in Springfield, and even if iona did lose and got an at large it would probably be one of those play in games, so winning the Maac championship is a very good thing even if Iona is 18-0. On an RPI side note one of things helping our RPI is Western Michigan has turned from a horrible RPi to low 100's and a decent win. Hopefully they can keep this up. My trouble with your theory is we have no good losses remaining on our schedule, and the team that can do the most damage to Iona is Rider. They got off to a horrific start, but Gadson is back healthy and they are capable of defeating Iona, lose that game alone and the at-large discussions have to end. Mid-majors lose to lesser foes in the league all the time. The MAAC still has 3 other teams in the top 150; road losses to these teams won't be considered "bad"--particularly if, say, Fairfield finds itself and gets back to the top 100. Also, you say we have no "good losses" remaining--don't forget the BracketBuster. I realize we're at home, but losing at home to an equal foe won't be considered a bad loss. Bad for the IMAGE, maybe, but not a bad loss per se.
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Post by hawaii bill on Jan 10, 2012 11:48:15 GMT -5
Yes there are a few components to this as we all know. Our technical RPI number, and perception/politics/TV money/etc.
We all saw what happened with our great RPI last year in respect to the NIT. We got screwed b/c our name isn't BIG STATE U. I think we had a better RPI than half the NIT field. Some of that was due to upsets, and some due to politics/money, imo.
We have to have an impeccable RPI and a win over a high bracket-buster opponent to get serious consideration. Even that is no guarantee as Northwestern or Wake Forest or some other midling BCS school will be out there looking for a bid.
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Post by chelseadal on Jan 10, 2012 11:58:28 GMT -5
Yes there are a few components to this as we all know. Our technical RPI number, and perception/politics/TV money/etc. We all saw what happened with our great RPI last year in respect to the NIT. We got screwed b/c our name isn't BIG STATE U. I think we had a better RPI than half the NIT field. Some of that was due to upsets, and some due to politics/money, imo. We have to have an impeccable RPI and a win over a high bracket-buster opponent to get serious consideration. Even that is no guarantee as Northwestern or Wake Forest or some other midling BCS school will be out there looking for a bid. What doesn't look good is the MAAC is 0-15 against top 50 teams (per Sagrain). Yeeechhh
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Post by ghostofwillard on Jan 10, 2012 12:38:34 GMT -5
Your right Rider would look like a bad loss even though it wouldn't be nearly as bad as it looks. I don't think at Manhattan, at Fairfield or at Loyola is a true bad loss. One thing for sure is the RPI predictor shows that we can afford a couple of losses and not plummet in RPI, but your right the committee may view these as bad losses, which wouldn't be good for the resume. Where I think you and me disagree is I do think we are definitely in with just one loss and a Maac tourney loss but being in may be the play in game. I think we'd get snubbed from the play in game also. Everybody was hyped by VCU going to the final four last year as a mid-major; but are they really a Mid-major? The have an undergraduate population of over 23,000 students (that's larger than most Big East schools) so there a big school, and if memory serves me their fans traveled well to their PIG, a little guy like Iona doesn't get that invite, it's all about the $.
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Post by GuyF on Jan 10, 2012 13:05:53 GMT -5
Here are the extremes:
18-0 MAAC, win BB game, win 3 games in Springfield--30-3 record, RPI probably in low 20s, probably nationally ranked--would get us a 7 seed.
15-3 MAAC, lose BB game, win 3 in Springfield (we'd have no shot at at-large)--26-7 record, RPI probably in low 50s, no votes for rankings--would get us a 13 seed.
Obviously I'd think our results will end up somewhere between these extremes, though probably closer to the higher end than the lower end.
We can sit here and play with variables all day--final regular-season MAAC record, who we lose to in MAAC play, who we lose to in MAAC Tourney and in what round, win or lose BB game, performance of our OOC foes the rest of the way. But obviously the variability is still too complex to make an educated guess. Every game means something, that is certain. We have a chance to be in a position no MAAC team has seen since the late 80s LaSalle team, but we also could easily just be another mid-major that petered out on the big stage. Time will tell--let's enjoy the ride!
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Post by Joebird on Jan 10, 2012 13:52:15 GMT -5
We can sit here and play with variables all day--final regular-season MAAC record, who we lose to in MAAC play, who we lose to in MAAC Tourney and in what round, win or lose BB game, performance of our OOC foes the rest of the way. But obviously the variability is still too complex to make an educated guess. Every game means something, that is certain. We have a chance to be in a position no MAAC team has seen since the late 80s LaSalle team, but we also could easily just be another mid-major that petered out on the big stage. Time will tell--let's enjoy the ride![/quote]
Since I have been the nut that has been over posting about this I did want to make a final post and say that what Guy is saying above is exactly right, its a great summary to my 25 posts!
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Post by nick on Jan 10, 2012 14:49:36 GMT -5
Yes there are a few components to this as we all know. Our technical RPI number, and perception/politics/TV money/etc. We all saw what happened with our great RPI last year in respect to the NIT. We got screwed b/c our name isn't BIG STATE U. I think we had a better RPI than half the NIT field. Some of that was due to upsets, and some due to politics/money, imo. We have to have an impeccable RPI and a win over a high bracket-buster opponent to get serious consideration. Even that is no guarantee as Northwestern or Wake Forest or some other midling BCS school will be out there looking for a bid. What doesn't look good is the MAAC is 0-15 against top 50 teams (per Sagrain). Yeeechhh We're the only MAAC team with more than 2 wins against winning teams.
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Post by Super on Jan 12, 2012 21:09:46 GMT -5
END THIS THREAD TONIGHT!
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Post by ghostofwillard on Jan 12, 2012 23:52:35 GMT -5
END THIS THREAD TONIGHT! +1
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Post by GuyF on Jan 16, 2012 13:57:44 GMT -5
OK, so here we are on 1/16, and generally speaking, all the ratings and ranking are getting closer in agreement re where Iona is in the college basketball world.
RPI: 35 AP poll: 37 Sagarin: 48 Bilas: 52 Pomeroy: 54
The NCAA will care about these, moreso RPI than the rest (and not Bilas at all). Basically, short of running the table to the MAAC final, I think we're done as far as at-large is concerned. We do seem like a solid 12 seed, but if we can indeed finish very strong, we can get to 11 and maybe 10. Of course, none of this means anything if we don't play with great intensity the rest of the way.
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Post by nick on Jan 16, 2012 15:41:31 GMT -5
Hard to believe we got votes in a poll after losing to Manhattan at home.
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