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Post by Joebird on Jan 7, 2012 15:11:20 GMT -5
RPI somehow stayed at 29, thought it would get worse by simply playing Niagara. RPI is not going to plummet unless Iona loses a lot of games. According to RPI projector site Iona can lose 3 more games an still be at 42, and that doesn't count bracketbuster game.
Even more interesting Iona's sagarin is 39, and this usually is higher than RPI.
Iona also has most away from home wins in the country.
Barring a suprising second half of the season Iona WILL be in position for a possible at large despite what some think. especially if St. joes can stay in top 50.
I'd like a Maac championship and an 11 seed with no worries of an at large but I think it is very possible, and Lunardi agrees.
The hofstra loss may keep us from going any higher than 11, which is probably a good thing for chances to advance to sweet sixteen.
As for last night Gaels did what they had to in order to win over a young and improving niagara team that has a lot of length.
The Marist game is very dangerous but after a subpar last night I expect iona to play well and win.
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Post by ghostofwillard on Jan 7, 2012 15:43:09 GMT -5
IMO the only way Iona gets an at large is to go into the Maac tourney title game w/ a record of 28-3, so that means they got to run the table to that Monday in March; it's possible but I don't see that happening.
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Post by Joebird on Jan 7, 2012 19:21:06 GMT -5
An at large is simply not as difficult as it was 5+ years ago. They changed the formula for thr RPI that lessened home wins and rewarded road wins as well as punished less road losses. This has resulted in mid majors RPI's being much better.
In addition college basketball is watered down with frosh going one and done, also the extra 3 spots make it a lot easier to get a bid. Plus teams like Butler and VCU's success makes it even more likely for a team like Iona to get an at large. If Iona runs the table and is 29-4 after a Maac championship loss I would bet the ranch that they get in as a no worse than a 9 seed. 28-5 they are very likely in as well (but I wouldn't bet the ranch).
I think Iona can lose twice plus a maac championship loss and get in. 3 losses, a nice bracket buster win and a maac championship loss and they still have an outside chance. I think Iona is going to lose 2 or 3 times before the Maac tourney and two they will get in 3 not, but I also think if they lose just twice they will win Maac tourney.
Basically what I am saying in its simply not as hard to get an at large bid and Iona has a decent resume to be in the discussion.
Those non Iona fans on the Maac board reading this and laughing at Gael fans can keep laughing because I feel pretty confident I am right, and also keep in mind I am the only one here who is saying this, don't pick on the rest of Iona fans it really is just me saying this.
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Post by Joebird on Jan 9, 2012 15:38:18 GMT -5
Thru 1/8. Iona RPI 32, Sagarin 37
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Post by Joebird on Jan 9, 2012 16:53:40 GMT -5
In addition Pomeroy 41, Sonny Moore Vegas rankings 45.
Interesting that all 4 has Iona a top 48 team, which pretty much means they are an at large team (37 at large plus 11 or so automatics). The average ranking of these 4 is 38.5. I think if you studied a history of this no team that was in the top 48 on all 4 ever was denied an at large, and now there are 3 extra spots. I don't see how a committee is going to look at this and ignore every ranking having Iona this high.
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Post by Joebird on Jan 9, 2012 17:51:11 GMT -5
One final post:
Iona RPI predictor doesn't have us falling that much with maac losses, all the wins would make up for the drop from a loss or two:
26-3: RPI 24
25-4: 30
24-5: 36
23-6: 43
None of above include bracket buster or Maac tourney. I think this confirms 0 or 1 loss plus maac tourney loss and we are in, 2 losses plus maac tourney loss still have shot(depends on several things). 3 losses and Maac tourney loss and we won't get in.
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Post by chelseadal on Jan 9, 2012 18:06:00 GMT -5
One final post: Iona RPI predictor doesn't have us falling that much with maac losses, all the wins would make up for the drop from a loss or two: 26-3: RPI 24 25-4: 30 24-5: 36 23-6: 43 None of above include bracket buster or Maac tourney. I think this confirms 0 or 1 loss plus maac tourney loss and we are in, 2 losses plus maac tourney loss still have shot(depends on several things). 3 losses and Maac tourney loss and we won't get in. It seems accurate. Now let's go win them all and leave zero doubt. |
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Post by Joebird on Jan 9, 2012 18:12:16 GMT -5
Steve Amedio's Maac blog keeps saying he thinks we will go 18-0. So far Iona has been dominating but I just can't see not having a slip up or two. Witnessing that Hofstra stinker in person left a scar on my mind. Maybe that was the wake up call the Gaels needed but just think it is very difficult to play well enough to win every game even in a mediocre at best mid major league like the Maac. I had expected 3 losses, the good play of late has left me expecting just 2 and hoping for just one.
What do others think?
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Post by jerseygael on Jan 9, 2012 19:16:59 GMT -5
I think we could easily lose at Fairfield and Loyola if we're not ready to play. The intensity needs to be there against all opponents for the entire game.The other team that is beginning to worry me a liitle are the Jaspers. Great rivalry so games could be close especially at Draddy.
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Post by Super on Jan 9, 2012 19:34:11 GMT -5
Joebird,
Here's what I have thought all along:
---2 losses in the MAAC + a Bracketbuster win 25-5
---Cut down the nets in Springfield ;D
---28-5 with a 10-11 seed!
Not much has happened different from what I originally thought overall--except I thought we would beat Hofstra and one of our losses would have come in PR, Denver, Richmond, Vermont.
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Post by chelseadal on Jan 9, 2012 21:07:46 GMT -5
One final post: Iona RPI predictor doesn't have us falling that much with maac losses, all the wins would make up for the drop from a loss or two: 26-3: RPI 24 25-4: 30 24-5: 36 23-6: 43 None of above include bracket buster or Maac tourney. I think this confirms 0 or 1 loss plus maac tourney loss and we are in, 2 losses plus maac tourney loss still have shot(depends on several things). 3 losses and Maac tourney loss and we won't get in. It seems accurate. Now let's go win them all and leave zero doubt. I am concerned about 2-4 losses. At times we let lesser teams stay close to us. If Glover gets into foul trouble it will be hard to beat teams on the road for sure. |
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Post by Super on Jan 10, 2012 6:03:22 GMT -5
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Post by Cjb on Jan 10, 2012 7:30:46 GMT -5
None of these numbers matter if we win those 3 games in March.
I for one would HATE to rely on them. Regardless of our rpi, it would be an extremely fragile bubble we'd be sitting on - one that is dependent upon no bids being "stolen" by upsets in higher conference tournaments - another way mids get screwed.
No question this is an ncaa tournament quality team, but they still have to take care of business in Springfield - it would be a double shame if they didn't.
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Post by ghostofwillard on Jan 10, 2012 8:58:49 GMT -5
None of these numbers matter if we win those 3 games in March. I for one would HATE to rely on them. Regardless of our rpi, it would be an extremely fragile bubble we'd be sitting on - one that is dependent upon no bids being "stolen" by upsets in higher conference tournaments - another way mids get screwed. No question this is an ncaa tournament quality team, but they still have to take care of business in Springfield - it would be a double shame if they didn't. I agree take care of business in Springfield; I still hold to my belief that they have to run the table up to the Maac championship game to be considered remotely for an at large bid. Anything less than that and they will be on the outside looking in! So remove all doubt and take the three in Springfield. |
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Post by Joebird on Jan 10, 2012 9:24:06 GMT -5
As everyone knows I disagree and think Gaels have a chance with up to 2 losses. However your right they should be shooting to win 3 in Springfield, and even if iona did lose and got an at large it would probably be one of those play in games, so winning the Maac championship is a very good thing even if Iona is 18-0.
On an RPI side note one of things helping our RPI is Western Michigan has turned from a horrible RPi to low 100's and a decent win. Hopefully they can keep this up.
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