A post from Negative Nellie...

[GuyF]

There's an alarming trend that Iona has endured under Cluess that MUST be rectified if Iona is to attain their goals this season.

Last year, Iona went 13-5 in the MAAC regular-season. But here's a stat--in 7 of the 10 rematch games--the second meetings--the opponent closed the margin on us. Now, of course sometimes being home vs away played a role, but the numbers suggest that opponents have fared better against us in the 2nd go-round. That said--in the THIRD meeting, Iona was improved in 2 of the 3 games. Additional factor--vs the teams we split against, we routed them in the 3rd meeting; against the team we swept, we fell apart. Still, it's a total of 8 out of 13 "rematches" that we saw opponents improve vs us.

So far this season, a small MAAC sample but the pattern continues. Against Niagara, the margin went from 36 to 12, and against Siena, from 36 to losing by 3.

Yes, I know, when you beat teams by 20+ as Iona has done quite a bit of the past 2 years, it's hard to "improve" on that. But clearly Cluess is MUCH better when you're not familiar with what he's throwing at you.

Out of the remaining 8 rematch games, it won't be easy to improve on the numbers. Iona has road 24-point wins vs SPC and Marist, so another dismantling even at home may be difficult. Another 2 to watch are Rider (+20) and Loyola (+11)--these will be road games this time around, so they'll likely be much closer. The two KEY ones to watch will be the home rematch with Fairfield (+9) the return game at Manhattan (-3). These are ones Iona will NEED to improve on--the Gaels need to whip a Fairfield team with little offense, and Iona must exact revenge on the Jaspers. Finally, we have Canisius Thursday at home, after winning by 12 up there. I'm comfortable we'll improve on that one, as I'm sure most would be.

Anyway, I don't mean to be Negative Nellie here, but this will be interesting to watch as the second half of the season and the MAAC tournament unfold.

[iona05]

"But clearly Cluess is MUCH better when you're not familiar with what he's throwing at you."

Silver lining here is that this bodes well for our chances in the NCAAs if we make it. And yes, I know, that's a BIG "if".

[ichoops]

I think we win out. Cluess will make the necessary second half adjustments.

[gregcrow]

Great analysis Guy. I do think the sample is still to small to draw any significant conclusions. In the end what does it really mean? Were we over-achieving earlier or are we under-achieving now? The bottom line is winning the games. If the margins shrink and we are still winning is it really a problem? Diffferent team with some different talent this year. Let's see what happens the rest of the season.
Another thing to keep in mind as far as TC goes is that many of these players were not his - now, most do fit into his style of play, but they were not his choices. It will be interesting to see how the team evolves over the next few years as this team becomes his team.
Most important is that I would like to see consistency over the last month of the season. I thought last year with one important exception, the team was very consistent as the season wound down. Would like to see that again this year.

[GuyF]

We've had 3 games since I started this thread. The update:

Canisius game went from +12 up there to +19 at home. Since it's an 8-point swing in sites, this goes down as a "loss".

Manhattan went from a loss at home to a win on the road. Obviously that's a W.

Loyola went from an 11-point win to a 6-point loss. An L.

Total: 10 of 16 rematches where we got outplayed/outcoached the 2nd time around.

[ghostofwillard]

Everythings gonna be alright boys; everythings gonna be alright!
This team will get it done!

[hawaii bill]

Feb 11, 2012 16:45:21 GMT -5 ghostofwillard said:

Everythings gonna be alright boys; everythings gonna be alright!
This team will get it done!

If we really focus and take it one game at a time we win out, imo, and end up 15-3. That might even be good enough for first place as Loyola still has to play FF and Manhattan. If its not, it s/b good enough for second.

This team appears to be to be dog tired right about now. Need to dig deep down fellas. Forget last night, we're all pulling for you.

Taaj and Randy, band together and get us 14 and 10 combined.

[ichoops]

12 and 5.... I'd by happier with 5 and 12

[GuyF]

11 of 17. But, as I said, it's hard to blow out someone twice.

Also: note that we did blow out St Peter's twice in the regular season, and it didn't work out so well for the third meeting.

[albanygael]

You guys are a tough bunch. This team is 12-3 in the league and 20-6 overall with one of the highest # of road wins in the nation. What were you expecting an undefeated season? League play is tough, everyone knows you and we have a target on our back. If the players want it bad enough they have the talent to win the tournament. Worrying about it isn't going to make a bit of difference.

[GuyF]

To be fair, if Iona wins out to the NCAAs, then they will only be 1 game off my season prediction. And I DO think they're going to win out.

As I said in another thread, we just don't want to see this season go to waste. We (and many outside of New Rochelle as well) had Iona pegged for a special year--to me that means being an at-large type of team. We'll fall short of that, but like I said, no one will care if we get to the NCAAs and win a game there.

The other thing to remember is that this is our 3rd straight 20-win season, and about 70% of the MAAC would kill for that success rate. BUT...in the end...it's all about the NCAAs.