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Post by chelseadal on Mar 6, 2014 8:01:13 GMT -5
Because no one has better than a 50% chance of winning, so no one is "expected" to win. OY
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Post by iona05 on Mar 6, 2014 8:19:23 GMT -5
RPI Forecast updates those odds every day, so while right now everybody is expected to lose one game, those odds will change as teams start to get eliminated. By the time the semis and finals rolls around the odds should level out to reflect one team winning the title.
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Post by iona1970 on Mar 6, 2014 8:55:05 GMT -5
that makes sense, except every outcome they pick otherwise is to the team with the higher rpi, there are many times the rpi's are almost identical and they pick a winner, but your reasoning makes sense
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Post by oldtimer on Mar 6, 2014 11:13:43 GMT -5
A check of all conferences will reveal that less then 10% have a team with more then 50% chance of winning their tournament...Simple math will indicate with 8-12 teams in a conference, a team would have to be clearly superior to a combined at least 7 other teams...
Also, in reality any team selected to win its conference tourney by more then 50% would have to very good, as they would have to be so to be at least even money to win 3 in a row.
The use of the term ''Clear Favorite'' is often used even though it is a exaggeration to emphasize.
As much as I like Iona's Tournament chances, I know that in reality though favorite, they have less then 50% of being the winner.....
Rider is a 3 1/2 point favorite over Monmouth 5 PM in game deciding our Saturday's opponent. Whom ever it is, we will have to deal with ''Beating the same team 3 in a row'' syndrome..........
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Post by GuyF on Mar 6, 2014 14:05:21 GMT -5
Two things:
1. Agree with the percentage comments above. It's funny, even if you combine Manhattan AND Iona, there's still only a 67% one of those teams win it, even though it appears they are the best teams.
2. The "beating the same team 3 times" theory is more in play when the teams are relatively equal in ability. Iona is superior to both teams and should win the third meeting regardless of opponent.
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Post by St. Louis Gael on Mar 6, 2014 16:44:24 GMT -5
Two things: 1. Agree with the percentage comments above. It's funny, even if you combine Manhattan AND Iona, there's still only a 67% one of those teams win it, even though it appears they are the best teams. 2. The "beating the same team 3 times" theory is more in play when the teams are relatively equal in ability. Iona is superior to both teams and should win the third meeting regardless of opponent. guy: I agree with you with you with one reservation. With the talent I believe Rider has, I hate giving them a third crack at our Gaels. They have good perimeter people, and Fortunat inside can give us trouble.
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Post by iona1970 on Mar 6, 2014 17:11:28 GMT -5
If we are worried about playing Rider, we are not an NCAA team, you can think of something to worry about any team if you look hard enough.
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Post by jerseygael on Mar 6, 2014 18:49:53 GMT -5
I agree with this. If we're the best team we'll beat the teams we're suppose to. It's what we've done all year long
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Post by hawaii bill on Mar 6, 2014 18:55:20 GMT -5
If we are worried about playing Rider, we are not an NCAA team, you can think of something to worry about any team if you look hard enough. Agreed. We can find something to worry about every game. And every other team in the conference has something to worry about if they play us. Not to pick on JoeBird, but every team has a list of "what can go wrong" during the three days of the tournament. I hope to God our guys are focused on what can go right. Hard to do anything in life if your worried about what can go wrong.
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Post by hawaii bill on Mar 6, 2014 19:12:35 GMT -5
BTW don't think I saw this posted but today Lunardi has us playing Carolina in Spokane. We can beat Carolina, just ask Matt Doherty.
Our RPI today is 70
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Post by iona1970 on Mar 7, 2014 0:45:49 GMT -5
just saw our rpi as 67 st chicken 65 by the end of the weekend, we will be looking down at them !!
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Post by dansimms on Mar 7, 2014 11:17:35 GMT -5
I am rooting for the toughest path to the NCAAs. Rider, Canisius and Manhattan. If they get through that, the first round NCAA opponent will be a couple of notches closer to Iona in ability. The RPI swing could be about 10 positions, if Iona got there via a middle of the pack foe or two in Springfield. I'd love it if Iona was viewed as just a 5 or 6 point dog in round 1. Odds of winning that game would be in the 30% range IMO.
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Post by iona1970 on Mar 8, 2014 0:47:12 GMT -5
Love how the Horizon does their tournament play in games at higher seed, day off, quarters and semis at a tournament site, day off, finals at higher seed i wouldn't mind the MAAC doing this
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Post by Super on Mar 15, 2014 21:55:03 GMT -5
After watching New Mexico-San Diego, I would have loved to have had a chance for the Gaels to play either of them.
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Post by gregcrow on Mar 16, 2014 17:25:59 GMT -5
Well, Manhattan gets screwed, happy to see Iona isn't the only MAAC team to get bad matchups.
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