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Post by Joebird on Mar 1, 2014 13:23:48 GMT -5
Next week ny buckets will run his 10000 simulations of the Maac tourney and we will likely see that Iona wins it about 2700 times, 27%. This is my guess based on what I have seen from his numbers in prior years. In an article he just posted he says we would have a 33% chance of beating Texas in the NCAA first game and 30% chance to beat Iowa state. These are the teams we are currently projected to play, therefore it is actually easier for us to win an NCAA game if we get in then the MAAC tourney, doesn't seem that way but those are the numbers. If you combine the numbers right now we have about a 9% chance of winning an NCAA game.
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Post by GuyF on Mar 1, 2014 17:06:13 GMT -5
Good stuff.
Many are assuming the top 4 will advance, but some things have changed:
1. Umar Shannon out for Quinny.
2. Alverado won't be 100% for Manhattan.
3. Siena is rising.
4. St Peter's is probably the most dangerous PIG team we've seen in a few years.
Though the matchups aren't set, we have potential for craziness in the quarters. Gotta believe 1 of the top 4 won't survive that day, and maybe 2. Couple this with the typical MAAC of rarely seeing 1 vs 2 in the final and you realize next weekend is gonna be nuts. Sucks that I can't go until the semis.
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Post by iona05 on Mar 1, 2014 17:10:33 GMT -5
Just booked room for Springfield. Gonna be a wild weekend. Anyone know of Iona is organizing any booster receptions?
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Post by Super on Mar 1, 2014 17:41:22 GMT -5
Just booked room for Springfield. Gonna be a wild weekend. Anyone know of Iona is organizing any booster receptions? Info on Goal Club receptions and tickets should be available Monday. See you there 05! |
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Post by Super on Mar 1, 2014 17:41:53 GMT -5
Just booked room for Springfield. Gonna be a wild weekend. Anyone know of Iona is organizing any booster receptions? Info on Goal Club receptions and tickets should be available Monday. See you there 05! |
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Post by java on Mar 1, 2014 17:58:00 GMT -5
Good stuff. Many are assuming the top 4 will advance, but some things have changed: 1. Umar Shannon out for Quinny. 2. Alverado won't be 100% for Manhattan. 3. Siena is rising. 4. St Peter's is probably the most dangerous PIG team we've seen in a few years. Though the matchups aren't set, we have potential for craziness in the quarters. Gotta believe 1 of the top 4 won't survive that day, and maybe 2. Couple this with the typical MAAC of rarely seeing 1 vs 2 in the final and you realize next weekend is gonna be nuts. Sucks that I can't go until the semis. Bingo! Many feel the Iona vs Manhattan re-match is locked up. I also feel Siena & St. Peter's are very dangerous teams. Both playing well and Patsos/Dunne are excellent at situational game preparation. I'm going to predict that Iona faces a 6 seed or worse in the final! Could it be Barrow & Fairfield? |
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Post by jerseygael on Mar 1, 2014 19:49:01 GMT -5
Shocked if the top 4 don't advance. Siena will lose their first contest
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Post by Joebird on Mar 2, 2014 9:33:11 GMT -5
My gut says if we can win the maac tourney we are going to win a game or two when we get there. Need to win today to keep seed positioning.
I feel the same about Manhattan, it would kill me if they were marching to the garden. However gun to my head I pick Canisius to win maac but they won't win an NCAA game. I do think we are the best team, but sometimes the best senior is enough to win this.
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Post by hawaii bill on Mar 2, 2014 10:54:09 GMT -5
The MAAC Tournament is Manhattan's to lose. Three 1,000 point seniors, pre-season consensus #1, highly touted 6'10" transfer from Maryland, young boy-genius coach. They are considered the favorite, even though we're the #1 seed.
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Post by oldtimer on Mar 2, 2014 13:58:58 GMT -5
The MAAC Tournament is Manhattan's to lose. Three 1,000 point seniors, pre-season consensus #1, highly touted 6'10" transfer from Maryland, young boy-genius coach. They are considered the favorite, even though we're the #1 seed.[/quote] By who.... Every betting line I have viewed has Iona as the favorite to win MAAC Tourney. The Jaspers win 1 game on a packed home court by a couple of points in overtime and all of a sudden they are NY Cities new desperate for a representative (back up for St. John's). darling....................We lead them with higher RPI'S and team ratings, and if we meet in the MAAC Tourney the people who wager money will not be swayed by press propaganda and downgraders...WE WILL BE FAVORITES...I am sure Iona's staff and players feel the same way along with its knowledgeable fans......... I can't quite figure if the quote was tongue in cheek sarcasm or taken as fact along with the ''Boy-Genius'' wild exaggeration.....  |
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Post by hawaii bill on Mar 2, 2014 15:06:28 GMT -5
Oldtimer simply talking about expectations here. They were the pre-season favorite, they have deep senior leadership. This is the best team Masiello's had so far. I don't really care who the oddsmakers think is the favorite. Masiello will be trying all week to take the pressure off his team and paint us as the favorite. No sale. Its your time to step up Jaspers. If they do, tip your hat to them.
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Post by oldtimer on Mar 2, 2014 16:36:26 GMT -5
Oldtimer simply talking about expectations here. They were the pre-season favorite, they have deep senior leadership. This is the best team Masiello's had so far. I don't really care who the oddsmakers think is the favorite. Masiello will be trying all week to take the pressure off his team and paint us as the favorite. No sale. Its your time to step up Jaspers. If they do, tip your hat to them.[/quote] CTBILL.......I took issue with you painting Manhattan as the favorite...Your post above ''Masiello will TRY to paint us (Iona) as the favorite'' infers that we are not...I have no issue with you thinking Manhattan is the better team, but to deem them favorites as well goes against all statistical reasoning...If you did not care who the oddsmaker think is the favorite, then you should use IMO instead of using them as a fact... I know and believe you are a true Iona fan, but you root from an entire different angle then I do...  |
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Post by Joebird on Mar 3, 2014 21:10:17 GMT -5
NY buckets odds are out:
Manhattan the favorite at 34%
Iona 31%
Canisius 14%
Quinny 11%
Believe Manhattan wins more often than Iona in the simulations simply because there semi game against a banged up Quinny is easier than Iona's. I believe he does his simulations based on kenpom rankings.
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Post by husker76 on Mar 4, 2014 11:47:42 GMT -5
I feel the end of season injuries will play a major factor with Manhattan and Quinnipiac. Both teams lost their primary distributors. It effects Quinnipiac more with Shannon completely gone, but Alvarado will be limited in some fashion especially with games on successive days. Expect Masiello to try to limit Alvarado's minutes in first game if they can maintain a lead to try to utilize him more later in the MAAC Tournament as needed. We all know there will be surprises, it is the MAAC Tournament. I just pray Coach Cluess can add a wrinkle to beat the full or 3/4 press we will see from anyone we play. The press does provide opportunities if everyone on the floor understands and can see them. We especially need to avoid picking up our dribble along the sidelines and at half court. My opinion is that the primary keys to our success will rest with 1) breaking the press and 2) playing with energy on both ends of the court almost the entire game. Praying for good health and focus for the team.
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Post by iona1970 on Mar 4, 2014 12:56:03 GMT -5
husker, to break the press we need at least 1 guy to go long, by not doing so there were 10 players within 10 ft of ea side of midcourt
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