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Post by Joebird on Mar 5, 2015 11:48:12 GMT -5
Live RPI has us at an RPI of 29 should we win the Maac tourney. That is a lot higher than I expected, probably assumes we beat Rider in the championship. 12 seed could still be in play, although I still expect a 13 should we win it. We have a 42% chance of winning and a 60% chance of making the championship game. 43 RPI should we lose in the Maac championship, that will lead to talk of an at large but highly unlikely. According to New Youk buckets our chances are only 33%. See link: www.nycbuckets.com/2015/03/10000-sims-maac-tournament-albany/
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Post by Joebird on Mar 5, 2015 11:50:35 GMT -5
Live RPI has us at an RPI of 29 should we win the Maac tourney. That is a lot higher than I expected, probably assumes we beat Rider in the championship. 12 seed could still be in play, although I still expect a 13 should we win it. We have a 42% chance of winning and a 60% chance of making the championship game. 43 RPI should we lose in the Maac championship, that will lead to talk of an at large but highly unlikely. According to New Youk buckets our chances are only 33%. See link: www.nycbuckets.com/2015/03/10000-sims-maac-tournament-albany/Ken Pom 34% chance kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/maac_log52
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Post by hawaii bill on Mar 5, 2015 11:58:54 GMT -5
Live RPI has us at an RPI of 29 should we win the Maac tourney. That is a lot higher than I expected, probably assumes we beat Rider in the championship. 12 seed could still be in play, although I still expect a 13 should we win it. We have a 42% chance of winning and a 60% chance of making the championship game. 43 RPI should we lose in the Maac championship, that will lead to talk of an at large but highly unlikely. According to New Youk buckets our chances are only 33%. See link: www.nycbuckets.com/2015/03/10000-sims-maac-tournament-albany/But they are better than everyone else's chances!
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Post by Joebird on Mar 5, 2015 12:41:41 GMT -5
But they are better than everyone else's chances! Oh yes, I know. Not trying to be negative just want to show the mathematical reality. It just confirms that very good mid majors get screwed by this system. Numbers do seem to confirm Cluess's statement that this is very wide open tournament with many schools having some sort of reasonable shot.
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Post by hawaii bill on Mar 5, 2015 12:48:02 GMT -5
But they are better than everyone else's chances! Oh yes, I know. Not trying to be negative just want to show the mathematical reality. It just confirms that very good mid majors get screwed by this system. Numbers do seem to confirm Cluess's statement that this is very wide open tournament with many schools having some sort of reasonable shot. Yes I agree. I'd be very disappointed if we lost, but IMO Cluess/staff are doing their job if they get the team to play hard, smart, and stay composed for three days. That's all they can do. Do that and the chances are good we win. Staff has to remain calm and focused and so will the team.
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Post by Joebird on Mar 5, 2015 12:51:42 GMT -5
Oh yes, I know. Not trying to be negative just want to show the mathematical reality. It just confirms that very good mid majors get screwed by this system. Numbers do seem to confirm Cluess's statement that this is very wide open tournament with many schools having some sort of reasonable shot. Yes I agree. I'd be very disappointed if we lost, but IMO Cluess/staff are doing their job if they get the team to play hard, smart, and stay composed for three days. That's all they can do. Do that and the chances are good we win. Staff has to remain calm and focused and so will the team. And every game you advance the chances go way up. One thing I feel the percentages don't include is that when push comes to shove in very important games like this weekend, the better team is more likely to win than it would be in a normal regular season game.
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Post by hawaii bill on Mar 5, 2015 13:11:04 GMT -5
Yes I agree. I'd be very disappointed if we lost, but IMO Cluess/staff are doing their job if they get the team to play hard, smart, and stay composed for three days. That's all they can do. Do that and the chances are good we win. Staff has to remain calm and focused and so will the team. And every game you advance the chances go way up. One thing I feel the percentages don't include is that when push comes to shove in very important games like this weekend, the better team is more likely to win than it would be in a normal regular season game. Agreed
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Post by iona05 on Mar 5, 2015 14:28:31 GMT -5
ESPN playing musical chairs with our opponents. Now in Jacksonville against No Iowa.
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Post by GuyF on Mar 5, 2015 15:16:58 GMT -5
#MidOnMidViolence
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Post by Super on Mar 5, 2015 15:58:28 GMT -5
ESPN playing musical chairs with our opponents. Now in Jacksonville against No Iowa. Jacksonville is just fine!
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