Sweep theory

[GuyF]

First, a couple notes. The sweep theory comes into play when the two teams are of "somewhat equal ability". With the parity in the MAAC, the range is a bit bigger this year. There is no real formula for "somewhat equal ability"--can use their seeds to a degree, RPI/Pomeroy to a degree, plus the eye test. Feel free to disagree/talk me out of including/not including certain matchups if you feel that strongly.

PIG
#6 Rider vs #11 Manhattan. Teams split.
#7 Canisius vs #10 Marist. Teams split.
#8 Quinny vs #9 Niagara. Quinny swept the Purps duing the year. Clearly these are equal teams, so sweep theory is in play.

Quarters
#4 Siena vs #5 Fairfield. Siena swept the Stags, and as a bonus they're at home. Sweep theory in play.
#3 Iona vs Rider/Manhattan. Iona and Rider split. Iona swept Manhattan but these teams aren't equal. No sweep theory.
#2 St Peters v Canisius/Marist. Cocks and Griffs split. Cocks swept Marist but these teams aren't equal. No sweep theory.
#1 Monmouth vs Quinny/Niagara. Monmouth swept both but they are not equals to the Hawks. No sweep theory.

Semis
Monmouth vs Siena/Fairfield. Hawks swept each. Siena is at home, so I would definitely count them as equal, and the sweep theory in play. Not sure about Monmouth-Fairfield. Since I am not sure, I am tempted to call them unequal, but we are talking about two non-PIG teams and if Fairfield wins "at Siena" they deserve credit. So, I am tempted to count it. Anyone disagree?
Iona/Rider vs St Peters/Canisius. Manhattan and Marist are not equal to either, if they get there. Iona swept St Peters, so the theory is in play. Canisius and Rider split. Iona and Canisius split. St Peters swept Rider--I think we have to count this as equal, and the theory would be in play. Anyone disagree?

Finals
We'll start with Monmouth, which split with St Peters but swept Iona. Siena and St Peters split, Siena and Iona split. Fairfield split with Iona. St Peters swept Fairfield, so the sweep theory is in play there. For our purposes, I'll include Rider and Canisius here too. Rider split with Monmouth and Siena but was swept by Fairfield--theory in play. Canisius was swept by Monmouth, but swept Siena (theory in play) and split with Fairfield.

So, there you have it. We have 2 examples at minimum. Let's see how it plays out.

[GuyF]

Note that Niagara won the third meeting. Cha-ching.

[gregcrow]

Mar 3, 2017 7:34:44 GMT -5 GuyF said:

Note that Niagara won the third meeting. Cha-ching.

You've got your Mojo back!

[Super]

Mar 3, 2017 8:37:22 GMT -5 gregcrow said:

Mar 3, 2017 7:34:44 GMT -5 GuyF said:

Note that Niagara won the third meeting. Cha-ching.

You've got your Mojo back!

Hope not!

[gregcrow]

Mar 3, 2017 8:53:58 GMT -5 Super said:

Mar 3, 2017 8:37:22 GMT -5 gregcrow said:

You've got your Mojo back!

Hope not!

Why's that? Sweep Theory would only effect us with Monmouth, and that would be for the positive.

[sigael]

St. Peter's Cocks. That's a big one.

[gregcrow]

Mar 3, 2017 9:43:14 GMT -5 sigael said:

St. Peter's Cocks. That's a big one.

Dummy! I missed that one. OK. We need to root for Canisius! Go Griffs!

[java]

Seems like sweep theory backfires as it looks like Siena will defeat Fairfield. Hope it backfires in our game tomorrow.

Siena has an excellent chance to compete and beat Monmouth. Smart move by Patsos to have Long and Bisping defend at the top of the key.

[GuyF]

Yup, theory is 1 of 2 on the mens side. Two chances tomorrow.

[GuyF]

Sweep theory claims another victim.

[java]

Glad we were able to dodge the sweep theory bullet.

It was a major concern for me.

[Z-73]

Glad we were able to dodge the sweep theory bullet.

Amen!

Go Gaels!!!

[GuyF]

Amazing. Sweep theory goes only .500, so there's that.

[oldtimer]

Mar 5, 2017 22:11:56 GMT -5 GuyF said:

Amazing. Sweep theory goes only .500, so there's that.

GUY.....I believe we are each each having a problem with the question itself and coming at it from a different direction.......

My point...There are over 350 Div 1 schools...Using them as a overall example, there is no doubt that the theory does not work....

On your side of the coin...Using only teams of with aprox. same or close value (using about a -4 betting difference), then the 3 game theory comes into play....

On my side of the coin...There are many more teams that have NEVER beaten another team with some of their streaks running years, and others whose victories are few and far between...

The 3 game theory does have many factors to favor it...New game plans...Renewed confidence...Where and where its played..., and mainly Law of Adverages...., but it does not come into play when Kentucky should for instance, play Prarie View College or any school outside the top 100....

Bye the way...Where can I purchase or obtain a record book that carries the proof you claim, it would certainly save me a lot of research...

Looking forward to tonights game...My line guess...Giving Siena at least 4 or 5 points for its home court and crowd sway I see it as near PICK EM or possibly either being a very slight favorite...I firmly believe the Refs are basically honest but they will be subconciously swayed by crow reaction along with the instant call that must be made!!!!!

What say you?

[GuyF]

Mar 6, 2017 11:44:31 GMT -5 oldtimer said:

Mar 5, 2017 22:11:56 GMT -5 GuyF said:

Amazing. Sweep theory goes only .500, so there's that.

GUY.....I believe we are each each having a problem with the question itself and coming at it from a different direction.......

My point...There are over 350 Div 1 schools...Using them as a overall example, there is no doubt that the theory does not work....

On your side of the coin...Using only teams of with aprox. same or close value (using about a -4 betting difference), then the 3 game theory comes into play....

On my side of the coin...There are many more teams that have NEVER beaten another team with some of their streaks running years, and others whose victories are few and far between...

The 3 game theory does have many factors to favor it...New game plans...Renewed confidence...Where and where its played..., and mainly Law of Adverages...., but it does not come into play when Kentucky should for instance, play Prarie View College or any school outside the top 100....

Bye the way...Where can I purchase or obtain a record book that carries the proof you claim, it would certainly save me a lot of research...

Looking forward to tonights game...My line guess...Giving Siena at least 4 or 5 points for its home court and crowd sway I see it as near PICK EM or possibly either being a very slight favorite...I firmly believe the Refs are basically honest but they will be subconciously swayed by crow reaction along with the instant call that must be made!!!!!

What say you?

Yes, I have specifically noted that the theory only comes into play when the teams are relatively close in ability. I have explained this often over the years.

There is no book that would contain said info. Within the past year or two I had posted MAAC specific numbers going back about 15 years, though. The data concluded that the theory has SOME merit, but certainly isn't a given. That said, LAST night was the FIRST time the theory did NOT bite Cluess in the ass. :-)

I think a few of us are calling us slight favorites. I am leaning closer to pick'em. The line opened at Iona -1, however, and current sits at -2 in most sportsbooks.