Official game-by-game prediction, 2011-12...

[GuyF]

It's that time of year again! Actually, it's later, as I held off on doing this until the MoMo decision came down.

My track record over the years has been pretty good with this stuff. I have the data should anyone care to question it (that's more for the non-Iona fans who see this). And given what I'm picking for this year, let's hope my Iona accuracy continues...

11/17 vs Purdue in PR. Gaels start season off with a bang. W, 1-0.
11/18 vs Temple/Western Michigan. Both teams are good. And I don't think we're going to go 3-0 and I won't pick us to lose in ANOTHER tourney final, so... L, 1-1.
11/20 vs Bama/Colorado/Maryland/Wichita St. Bounce-back game. W, 2-1.
11/23 vs St Joes. Home opener against mid-pack A-10 team. W, 3-1.
11/28 vs LIU. First one to 100 wins! W, 4-1.
12/2 at Canisius. Griffs will be young. W, 5-1, 1-0.
12/4 at Niagara. Purps renamed the Perps? W, 6-1, 2-0.
12/7 at Denver. No cakewalk, but no problem. W, 7-1, 2-0.
12/11 at Marshall. Have you heard the Herd are good? L, 7-2, 2-0.
12/14 at Richmond. The Spiders remember. L, 7-3, 2-0.
12/17 at Vermont. The 'Stash is gone, I hope. W, 8-3, 2-0.
12/21 at William & Mary. Shoulda brought all 5 players. W, 9-3, 2-0.
12/29 at Hofstra. Pride is all they have with no Jenkins. W, 10-3, 2-0.
1/3 vs Siena at MSG. This is our town. W, 11-3, 3-0.
1/6 vs Niagara. What is this Hynes place we're playing in? W, 12-3, 4-0.
1/8 at Marist. Is Giorgis coaching yet? W, 13-3, 5-0.
1/12 vs Manhattan. So much for rivalries. W, 14-3, 6-0.
1/15 vs Loyola. This has Patsos T written all over it. W, 15-3, 7-0.
1/20 vs Rider. Donks can't win at Hynes AGAIN, can they? W, 16-3, 8-0.
1/23 at Siena. Tougher game than it looks. W, 17-3, 9-0.
1/27 at Fairfield. They ain't worried 'bout us, dog. L, 17-4, 9-1.
1/29 at SPC. March was a looooooong time ago. W, 18-4, 10-1.
2/2 vs Canisius. Stay passionate. W, 19-4, 11-1.
2/4 at Manhattan. Got a feeling this will be a tight game. W, 20-4, 12-1.
2/10 at Loyola. Six days for Cluess to prepare. W, 21-4, 13-1.
2/12 vs Marist. Ho-hum. W, 22-4, 14-1.
2/15 at Rider. Donks continue to hex Gaels. L, 22-5, 14-2.
2/17-18 vs Bracketbuster. Premiere game on tap? Butler? Belmont? Won't matter at Hynes. W, 23-5, 14-2.
2/24 vs Fairfield. No sweep for you. W, 24-5, 15-2.
2/26 vs SPC. Senior day success. W, 25-5, 16-2.

MAAC Tournament: Gaels will be the 1 seed and will own the field this year, with no slip-ups in the finals this time against Fairfield in front of about 3K in Springfield.

NCAA Tournament: Iona will be in line for a 12 seed, even with the expanded field, due to strong road performance springboarding their RPI to the low 40s. The Gaels will draw a desirable 5 seed and FINALLY get that elusive NCAA victory, which would be the MAAC's 4th in 8 years (or is it 7, can't keep track). The four seed Iona will draw in the 2nd round will be a taller order, but the Gaels will be in the game before falling. Iona's final record of 29-6 is one of the best in school history and the 2011-12 Gaels go down as one of the MAAC's all-time bests.

Now, let's get to San Juan and start this thing up.

[Joebird]

Good job Guy. I did this on my own and have almost the exact same prediction. I have us losing back to back on road against fairfield and SPC and beating Richmond-also 25-5. However the more I think about it the harder I think it will be to lose just one of those December games, your prediction may be more accurate.

[MTS]

The question is does Iona get an at-large if they go 27-6 and lose in the MAAC final? I'll say yes they'll be in the game VCU was in last season.

Good job Guy and good luck to the Gaels other than on 1/3 and 1/23 of course!

[qs]

Nostradamus, eat yer heart out! Good job, Guy.

[epatrick]

I hope you're right, MTS. Thanks.

[hawaii bill]

Impressive as usual Guy, whether these turn out to be accurate or not.

Must win RPI games, IMO.

v. St. Joes
v. LIU
@ Denver
@ W&M
@ Vermont
@ Hofstra

Marist home and away
St. Peter's home and away
Canisius home and away

[ako]

Hi all -- first time post but big time gael fan....been monitoring this forum for a while and finally made a log in so i can chime in from time to time

anyway, i would love to see that first big win vs. purdue in PR -- Id put the line at purdue -5.5 but i could see vegas going higher

With the 96 team bracket and the gaels at a potential 12 seed --- that leaves them playing a 21 seed....it would be nice to see a Maac team as a fav for once in the big dance --- at least a good chance to get the big elusive tourney win

[Super]

Guy, hard to argue with your game-by-game, but I think we're 23-7 and 15-3--don't know which ones--just a feeling.

I do think we'll have a shot at Sweet 16.

[ichoops]

Are we a better team than last year? We lost, Alejo, Dwight and Pelcher.

[GuyF]

Nov 5, 2011 6:36:56 GMT -5 ichoops said:

Are we a better team than last year? We lost, Alejo, Dwight and Pelcher.

And gained MoMo, several frontcourt bodies, and all the returnees are a year older.

[Cjb]

Nov 4, 2011 23:57:11 GMT -5 ako said:

With the 96 team bracket and the gaels at a potential 12 seed --- that leaves them playing a 21 seed....it would be nice to see a Maac team as a fav for once in the big dance --- at least a good chance to get the big elusive tourney win

Welcome, ako. Good job pointing that out about the expanded tourney as that (12/21) represents a substantial difference from 12/5. For now, I'm going to worry about getting there first and hope the Gaels can take care of business to do that.

Look forward to you joining these discussions!

Nov 5, 2011 6:33:50 GMT -5 Super said:

Guy, hard to argue with your game-by-game, but I think we're 23-7 and 15-3--don't know which ones--just a feeling.

I'll have to agree with Super here as letdowns are inevitable (unless your John Wooden and UCLA). I hope I'm wrong.

[GuyF]

Nov 5, 2011 6:33:50 GMT -5 Super said:

Guy, hard to argue with your game-by-game, but I think we're 23-7 and 15-3--don't know which ones--just a feeling.

I do think we'll have a shot at Sweet 16.

Entirely possible, especially with all those road games and with the target on our backs vs MAAC foes.

To Joebird's point, though, I think we'll have just too much offense for about 90% of the teams we play. I am going to assume that our defense will play like it did in February rather than what it looked like from November-January. I don't have exact numbers, but I'll guess we went from allowing about 45% shooting November-January to about 40% shooting over February and March.

[chelseadal]

Nov 5, 2011 8:38:07 GMT -5 GuyF said:

Nov 5, 2011 6:33:50 GMT -5 Super said:

Guy, hard to argue with your game-by-game, but I think we're 23-7 and 15-3--don't know which ones--just a feeling.

I do think we'll have a shot at Sweet 16.

Entirely possible, especially with all those road games and with the target on our backs vs MAAC foes.

To Joebird's point, though, I think we'll have just too much offense for about 90% of the teams we play. I am going to assume that our defense will play like it did in February rather than what it looked like from November-January. I don't have exact numbers, but I'll guess we went from allowing about 45% shooting November-January to about 40% shooting over February and March.

Guy, I think your projections are very good. My main worry is how fast they jell as a team. Should be fine with the nucleus they have, but MoMo needs to fit in quickly.

[Joebird]

96 teams bracket? Where did that come from. I think we are still at 68.

[Super]

Nov 6, 2011 8:26:58 GMT -5 Joebird said:

96 teams bracket? Where did that come from. I think we are still at 68.

Joebird--I was just thinking the same thing! There's no 96 team tourney!