Interesting to note that PIG teams have made it to the MAAC finals in each of the last two seasons (Monmouth and Fairfield). Believe the last team to win the MAAC tourney as a PIG was Siena back in 2002, but not entirely sure about that one.
I know it's just semantics, but a round where over half the teams in the conference play is hardly a play-in game. It's really the firsts round and the top 5 get a bye.
Iona's opponent winning strategy should be to tape Jose Altuve buzzers under their jerseys and have them activate roughly every 15 seconds into each possession.
Every shot the opponent takes will go in and for the first time in NCAA D1 history, a team will score zero points.
Compare this to our path as a 5 seed (abbreviated to include favorites)
3/12: Monmouth (QF) 3/13: Siena (SF) 3/14: SPU/Rider (Champ)
Even with the extra game you can argue that our path as a 7 seed is more favorable than it would have been as a 5.
Surely optimism at its’ best! There is no silver lining here, just look at the last three games and our limited bench. Four games in 5 days, are we kidding! One day off? We can’t respond at this point with two days off. The season is about to end fellas...
As soon as Cluess announced that he was going to be out with an illness, a PIG berth became a distinct possibility and to me the season became a no-expectations scenario. I know some of you don't like when I call it a throwaway, so to me that's a better way of saying it--with no Tim, IMO we simply could not expect to just carry on and win as usual. We have seen this season how important coaching is, and I hope the powers that be at Iona are keeping this in mind as well as we get closer to the offseason.
I said earlier that I am not expecting good things in AC. While that is still true, as moderator I like to try to pull you guys up when you're feeling down and bring you down when you're feeling too up, so I'll give an objective view of the MAAC tournament here instead.
Against Canisius, expect a war. We already know there are no easy games in the MAAC, we've seen it time and time again. We've also seen years where PIG teams whip up on the top 5. So, just keeping that in mind. Re the Griffs specifically, they have played considerably better as of late, save for their completely dreadful performance against us. They are very much on par with us, both in seeding and in computer rating, so the sweep theory is in play here. Looking at the the two games, Iona dominated the first half in each game, at Iona Canisius controlled the second half and at Canisius the teams played generally even in the 2nd half. I am hopeful the team learned from what happened vs Quinny, I knew without question that the meeting in New Rochelle wasn't going to be another laugher but I did not expect us to lose. Witherspoon is not a great coach so I am more hopeful there than I would be against, say, Marist. I still have major concerns in a tight game, and I expect this to be a tight game. It would be fantastic if we race out to a big lead again so we can work in some bench guys--and I agree with all of you that we absolutely have to have contributions from the bench to do anything of note in this tournament. Anyway, again just talking about Canisius, this is a game that I expect to come down to the final seconds, and hopefully we can survive.
IF we survive, St Peter's awaits. The good news is that the sweep KIND of comes into play here. SPU is WAY ahead of us in the standings, so an argument can be made that they are simply better than us--and I think that's fair. But they are just 30 spots ahead of us in KenPom (comparison: Iona is 24 spots ahead of Canisius). Iona will probably be a 2-point favorite vs Canisius, and if Iona survives expect SPU to be a 2-point favorite over Iona--maybe 3-4, if oddsmakers factor in the lack of rest. Anyway, both games vs SPU were close, and it's going to come down to whether Iona can get anything from its bench vs a deeper, fresh SPU team vs whether the "Iona mystique" vs the "SPU youth factor" makes any difference at all. If Iona gets to this game vs SPU, I don't know if we can win, but I expect another tightish game--with the potential for a late fade due to fatigue. But I don't expect us to go down without a fight, for sure--and, again, Iona IS in everyone's heads, with or without Tim. We have now lost twice to this team due to very late baskets--can SPU do this to us again? Or will they falter late again, like they have in past tournaments with a more veteran group?
IF we survive SPU, it would be a hell of an accomplishment for these kids, given how the season has gone save for that February stretch. A semifinal berth would be incredible for sure. And, as noted by others, Siena is the best team in this league, so avoiding them (despite our history against them) is best, particularly on short rest. And, at least we would have a day off to regroup. So, there is hope. Now, Rider is the team expected to be there, and honestly, I think they are dangerous in this tournament despite their history of bailing in the quarters. And there is a risk for that as well, with Niagara their likely foe in the 3-6 quarterfinal. The Purps will go into that with a nothing-to-lose attitude, and who knows, maybe they get hot from 3 and Rider's quarterfinal messes continue, and Iona looks up and sees Niagara awaiting in the semis. This obviously is more ideal. Iona lost 2 tight ones to Niagara, and honestly their style is a problem for us because we defend the 3 so poorly, but they can't stop us either. They would have played the day before so we would actually have the edge in rest. And we have sweep theory here too. So we would feel good about that one, IF it's Niagara. If it's Rider, it means they finally figured out their quarterfinal woes, and again a team with size and depth would await us. They would have played the day before so they would not be quite as fresh. We swept them but they are actually 40 spots better than us in KenPom. This is the one team we can survive tight games against, because they are bad from the line and aren't great shooters. And if we're in a tight game again, I think it favors us. Either way: gonna be yet another test to survive a close one, and how far can our mystique take us? At this point, the kids will be feeling it and the MAAC will be "oh no, not again". It'll be quite interesting.
IF we survive the semis, we're back to our usual haunts in the finals. I won't cover all the possibilities here, but I will note that 1 seeds generally don't survive this tourney. Before Iona last year, no 1 seed won it since Siena did in 2010--at home. Both Monmouth and Quinny can challenge them in different ways, and I think the bad blood coming out of yesterday's Monmouth-Siena game adds some juice. Dunleavy has had mild tourney success despite no finals berths, and King also has found ways to advance despite no titles. Both could challenge Siena. Iona vs Monmouth or Quinny are coinflip games most likely as our guys would be riding on adrenaline, and we have seen it ourselves, we've seen other MAAC teams get to the finals against us and have no legs left. I fear this happening here as well to us, regardless of opponent. Drawing Siena in this spot, the Saints could be in a position to finally exorcise their demons against us, a more talented team vs a weary bunch of Gaels. Or, history continues to repeat. Who knows. No one would bet against us in that spot, that's for sure.
So, yes, we could lose to Canisius Tuesday or we can win the whole damn thing again. For the latter to even come close to happening, Arnold MUST turn to our bench, and our bench must produce. We have had some flaky performances by some of those guys coming in--for example, I thought Perez was bad last night, but Cashaw was exceptional. We cannot go long stretches with more than 1 start off the floor, but we must gamble with this and survive such stretches if we are to advance and continue to advance. And, above all, we must defend. I've preached this for a while now as you guys know. We actually played pretty good defense the past 2 games, and still lost both of them. Can attribute this to too many offensive boards given up--we simply have to hit the glass much, much harder on our own end of the floor--we've stopped the opponents' first try and then give them second and third chances--it's demoralizing. Stop worrying about transition O, and get 5 guys on the defensive glass.
Finally, two more variables to consider:
1. Gist. None of us know if he's going to be back. Some of us don't even want him back. Maybe some players don't want him back. I say bollocks to all of that. We need players. We've just lost 3 straight without him, as much because there's little faith in our bench as anything else. If he's healthy, let him be our 6th man. He has fresh legs and can log heavy minutes for us. He is capable of carrying us offensively for a game, and saving the legs of our other stars. As I said: we're losing right now without him, let's not be assholes and say he's going to screw with chemistry--we need bodies. If he's back, and we put him out there and bad things happen and we lose to Canisius, as I have already said above, there's a good chance for that anyway. Dress him and play him if he's able.
2. Cluess. Won't go into specifics here, but there's always the random chance he just shows up. Very very unlikely, yes. Maybe 1000-1 odds this happens. But just imagine what happens if he's there--if OUR guys see this, the other teams and coaches see this, if WE as fans see this. No, he's not a miracle worker and he won't fix the flaws. I am speaking strictly from a psychological standpoint when I say that his presence could mean a whole lot. But I reiterate--the odds of this are probably on lottery-winning levels. Just thought I'd throw it out there as a what the hell, as we don't know what the future's going to hold for this program beyond this week.
See you all in AC on Tuesday.
The greatest poster in the history of the MAAC as determined by THREE separate polls.
Compare this to our path as a 5 seed (abbreviated to include favorites)
3/12: Monmouth (QF) 3/13: Siena (SF) 3/14: SPU/Rider (Champ)
Even with the extra game you can argue that our path as a 7 seed is more favorable than it would have been as a 5.
Surely optimism at its’ best! There is no silver lining here, just look at the last three games and our limited bench. Four games in 5 days, are we kidding! One day off? We can’t respond at this point with two days off. The season is about to end fellas...
Not doubting that--just indicated we won't be playing 3 consecutive nights.
As soon as Cluess announced that he was going to be out with an illness, a PIG berth became a distinct possibility and to me the season became a no-expectations scenario. I know some of you don't like when I call it a throwaway, so to me that's a better way of saying it--with no Tim, IMO we simply could not expect to just carry on and win as usual. We have seen this season how important coaching is, and I hope the powers that be at Iona are keeping this in mind as well as we get closer to the offseason.
I said earlier that I am not expecting good things in AC. While that is still true, as moderator I like to try to pull you guys up when you're feeling down and bring you down when you're feeling too up, so I'll give an objective view of the MAAC tournament here instead.
Against Canisius, expect a war. We already know there are no easy games in the MAAC, we've seen it time and time again. We've also seen years where PIG teams whip up on the top 5. So, just keeping that in mind. Re the Griffs specifically, they have played considerably better as of late, save for their completely dreadful performance against us. They are very much on par with us, both in seeding and in computer rating, so the sweep theory is in play here. Looking at the the two games, Iona dominated the first half in each game, at Iona Canisius controlled the second half and at Canisius the teams played generally even in the 2nd half. I am hopeful the team learned from what happened vs Quinny, I knew without question that the meeting in New Rochelle wasn't going to be another laugher but I did not expect us to lose. Witherspoon is not a great coach so I am more hopeful there than I would be against, say, Marist. I still have major concerns in a tight game, and I expect this to be a tight game. It would be fantastic if we race out to a big lead again so we can work in some bench guys--and I agree with all of you that we absolutely have to have contributions from the bench to do anything of note in this tournament. Anyway, again just talking about Canisius, this is a game that I expect to come down to the final seconds, and hopefully we can survive.
IF we survive, St Peter's awaits. The good news is that the sweep KIND of comes into play here. SPU is WAY ahead of us in the standings, so an argument can be made that they are simply better than us--and I think that's fair. But they are just 30 spots ahead of us in KenPom (comparison: Iona is 24 spots ahead of Canisius). Iona will probably be a 2-point favorite vs Canisius, and if Iona survives expect SPU to be a 2-point favorite over Iona--maybe 3-4, if oddsmakers factor in the lack of rest. Anyway, both games vs SPU were close, and it's going to come down to whether Iona can get anything from its bench vs a deeper, fresh SPU team vs whether the "Iona mystique" vs the "SPU youth factor" makes any difference at all. If Iona gets to this game vs SPU, I don't know if we can win, but I expect another tightish game--with the potential for a late fade due to fatigue. But I don't expect us to go down without a fight, for sure--and, again, Iona IS in everyone's heads, with or without Tim. We have now lost twice to this team due to very late baskets--can SPU do this to us again? Or will they falter late again, like they have in past tournaments with a more veteran group?
IF we survive SPU, it would be a hell of an accomplishment for these kids, given how the season has gone save for that February stretch. A semifinal berth would be incredible for sure. And, as noted by others, Siena is the best team in this league, so avoiding them (despite our history against them) is best, particularly on short rest. And, at least we would have a day off to regroup. So, there is hope. Now, Rider is the team expected to be there, and honestly, I think they are dangerous in this tournament despite their history of bailing in the quarters. And there is a risk for that as well, with Niagara their likely foe in the 3-6 quarterfinal. The Purps will go into that with a nothing-to-lose attitude, and who knows, maybe they get hot from 3 and Rider's quarterfinal messes continue, and Iona looks up and sees Niagara awaiting in the semis. This obviously is more ideal. Iona lost 2 tight ones to Niagara, and honestly their style is a problem for us because we defend the 3 so poorly, but they can't stop us either. They would have played the day before so we would actually have the edge in rest. And we have sweep theory here too. So we would feel good about that one, IF it's Niagara. If it's Rider, it means they finally figured out their quarterfinal woes, and again a team with size and depth would await us. They would have played the day before so they would not be quite as fresh. We swept them but they are actually 40 spots better than us in KenPom. This is the one team we can survive tight games against, because they are bad from the line and aren't great shooters. And if we're in a tight game again, I think it favors us. Either way: gonna be yet another test to survive a close one, and how far can our mystique take us? At this point, the kids will be feeling it and the MAAC will be "oh no, not again". It'll be quite interesting.
IF we survive the semis, we're back to our usual haunts in the finals. I won't cover all the possibilities here, but I will note that 1 seeds generally don't survive this tourney. Before Iona last year, no 1 seed won it since Siena did in 2010--at home. Both Monmouth and Quinny can challenge them in different ways, and I think the bad blood coming out of yesterday's Monmouth-Siena game adds some juice. Dunleavy has had mild tourney success despite no finals berths, and King also has found ways to advance despite no titles. Both could challenge Siena. Iona vs Monmouth or Quinny are coinflip games most likely as our guys would be riding on adrenaline, and we have seen it ourselves, we've seen other MAAC teams get to the finals against us and have no legs left. I fear this happening here as well to us, regardless of opponent. Drawing Siena in this spot, the Saints could be in a position to finally exorcise their demons against us, a more talented team vs a weary bunch of Gaels. Or, history continues to repeat. Who knows. No one would bet against us in that spot, that's for sure.
So, yes, we could lose to Canisius Tuesday or we can win the whole damn thing again. For the latter to even come close to happening, Arnold MUST turn to our bench, and our bench must produce. We have had some flaky performances by some of those guys coming in--for example, I thought Perez was bad last night, but Cashaw was exceptional. We cannot go long stretches with more than 1 start off the floor, but we must gamble with this and survive such stretches if we are to advance and continue to advance. And, above all, we must defend. I've preached this for a while now as you guys know. We actually played pretty good defense the past 2 games, and still lost both of them. Can attribute this to too many offensive boards given up--we simply have to hit the glass much, much harder on our own end of the floor--we've stopped the opponents' first try and then give them second and third chances--it's demoralizing. Stop worrying about transition O, and get 5 guys on the defensive glass.
Finally, two more variables to consider:
1. Gist. None of us know if he's going to be back. Some of us don't even want him back. Maybe some players don't want him back. I say bollocks to all of that. We need players. We've just lost 3 straight without him, as much because there's little faith in our bench as anything else. If he's healthy, let him be our 6th man. He has fresh legs and can log heavy minutes for us. He is capable of carrying us offensively for a game, and saving the legs of our other stars. As I said: we're losing right now without him, let's not be assholes and say he's going to screw with chemistry--we need bodies. If he's back, and we put him out there and bad things happen and we lose to Canisius, as I have already said above, there's a good chance for that anyway. Dress him and play him if he's able.
2. Cluess. Won't go into specifics here, but there's always the random chance he just shows up. Very very unlikely, yes. Maybe 1000-1 odds this happens. But just imagine what happens if he's there--if OUR guys see this, the other teams and coaches see this, if WE as fans see this. No, he's not a miracle worker and he won't fix the flaws. I am speaking strictly from a psychological standpoint when I say that his presence could mean a whole lot. But I reiterate--the odds of this are probably on lottery-winning levels. Just thought I'd throw it out there as a what the hell, as we don't know what the future's going to hold for this program beyond this week.
See you all in AC on Tuesday.
Amazing analysis. You should get paid for this stuff. ;-)
Agreed, thanks for the writeup. Tim always has tricks up his sleeve once it came tourney time, knowing that its really the only week that matters. I have no faith that Arnold can help relay those messages, but I pray I am wrong. As for Crawford and Agee, they need to keep their composure and Iona can beat anyone in the league. Share the damn ball guys.